HAINES CITY | Good news for Florida citrus: The industry had a nearly $9 billion economic impact on the state's economy in the 2007-08 growing season, about the same as a decade ago.

The bad news is $9 billion isn't worth what it used to be.

A recently released study by Alan Hodges and Mohammad Rahmani, economists at the University of Florida, showed the state's citrus industry contributed $8.9 billion to Florida's economy during the 2007-08 citrus season. The citrus harvesting season runs from October through June while sales of orange juice, the state's biggest citrus product, occur year around.

The study updates two earlier economic impact studies for the 2003-04 season, which showed an impact of $9.29 billion, and for the 1999-2000 season, which calculated a $9.13 billion impact. Hodges worked on all three studies.

That compares to a 58 percent growth in Florida's gross domestic product (GDP), the value of all goods and services produced in the state, from $417 billion in 2000 to $744 billion in 2008, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. Both figures represent current dollars, which account for inflation.

U.S. GDP grew 45 percent over that time from $9.7 trillion in 2000 to $14.1 trillion in 2008 in today's dollars.

"In inflation-adjusted terms, total economic impact has declined by about 20 percent," Hodges told The Ledger.

That's a decline from an $11.2 billion impact in 1999-2000 to $8.9 billion in 2007-08 as expressed in 2008 dollars, he said.

Jay Clark expressed mixed reaction to the numbers, depending upon which hat he wore.

"As far as the growers out here go, it's not terribly significant," said Clark, a Wauchula citrus grower. "From the growers' standpoint, the day-to-day number is how much somebody is going to pay for oranges."

As a former banker and president of Lakeland-based Florida Citrus Mutual, the state's largest growers' representative, Clark said the numbers carry significance in ranking citrus as an economic and political power in Florida.

"It is helpful from a political standpoint," he said. "Even with a 20 percent decrease, agriculture is one of the more stable sectors in Florida. Look at tourism - it's probably down more than 20 percent."

It's particularly helpful when Florida citrus needs all the help it can get in battling citrus greening, a fatal bacterial disease that threatens to wipe out the state's citrus groves, said Kyle Story, a Lake Wales grower. That help includes seeking millions of dollars from the state and federal governments for scientific research.

"To be in such a good financial position and being able to point to the range of people we employ, it speaks volumes when we request assistance," Story said.

The recent study found Florida citrus provided 27,425 jobs in the 2007-08 season, a 73 percent increase from 15,863 jobs in 2003-04 and 20 percent higher than 22,883 jobs in 1999-2000.

Indirectly, the study showed citrus supported another 48,403 jobs in the state economy during the 2007-08 season in sectors such as construction, manufacturing, retail trade, transportation, and health and social services.

However, most of that increase represents a change in the way the federal government collects job numbers and categorizes them by industry, said Hodges and Tom Spreen, another UF economist and a leading authority on citrus economics.

"I don't think there's been a real change in the industry. We just have a better number," Hodges said.

But Bob Norberg, an economist and deputy executive director at the Florida Department of Citrus, said employment probably has grown since 2003-04 stemming from the fight against citrus greening.

Various anti-greening measures, such as employing scouting companies to survey groves for disease symptoms, have added new jobs to the industry, he said. Greening did not surface in Florida until 2005.

Norberg also disputed comparisons between the economic impact numbers with growth in Florida GDP.

"I don't think you can inflate economic impacts to present dollars. The (impact) analysis is based on relationships at a specific point in time. Relationships change over time," Norberg said.

"When the Florida GDP was expanding at a 60 percent rate from 2000 to 2008, the expansion was due to Florida residents taking their artificial gains in wealth (asset valuations) and spending it on goods and services supplied by Florida companies," he said.

Still, it was surprising Florida citrus' economic impact didn't drop further considering damages wrought by the 2004 and 2005 hurricanes and the discovery of greening, Spreen said.

"I was flabbergasted it came down so little," said Spreen, who reviewed the study before its publication.

From the 2003-04 to the 2007-08 seasons, commercial citrus grove land declined from 748,555 acres to 576,577 acres; tree numbers declined from 98 million to 75 million; and fruit production dropped from 292 million boxes to 204 million boxes.

"We all know we've lost significant acreage. To see the numbers come out (at about $9 billion) is very good news and gives us a very strong argument," Story said.

Despite those declines, revenue has remained stable over the nine seasons covered by the three economic impact studies, Hodges and Spreen said. That's because retail prices, particularly for orange juice, increased significantly in response to fruit shortages.

"You have to remember these economic impact studies are dollar-driven," Spreen said.

The studies show the total wholesale value of orange and grapefruit juices produced by Florida processors ranged from $3.45 billion in 1999-2000 to $3 billion in 2003-04 and back up to $3.45 billion in 2007-08.

Similarly, the wholesale value of fresh fruit shipments from Florida packinghouses ranged from $494 million to $548 million to $438 million, respectively.

"Price increases have almost exactly offset decreases in production," Hodges said.

The big question for Florida growers and the state's economy is whether those numbers represent a short-term trend or a long-term decline.

"No doubt we've had our problems and we are struggling," said Mike Sparks, chief executive at Florida Citrus Mutual. "We're down, but we're still a key component of the economic engine of the state of Florida. I still believe the glass is half full."

But Hodges noted other UF studies and the industry's own prognoses show continuing declines in commercial acreage and production until scientists find an answer to citrus greening.

And he questioned whether consumers would continue paying higher prices to offset Florida's citrus production declines.

"I tend to think the trend in the last 10 years represents what we'll see in the next 10 years, perhaps in the next 20 years," he said.

The studies do not break down economic impact by county or region.

Polk typically leads the state in citrus acreage and annual production.

That was true in the 2007-08 season, when Polk growers produced more than 31 million boxes of citrus on 81,375 grove acres.

[ Kevin Bouffard can be reached at kevin.bouffard@theledger.com or at 863-422-6800. ]